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Fitch affirms SOCAR at 'BBB

Fitch Ratings has affirmed State Oil Company from the Azerbaijan Republic's (SOCAR) Long term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB ', Temporary foreign currency IDR at 'F3' and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB '. The Outlook on the Long term IDR is Stable, the company said.

SOCAR's ratings, Azerbaijan's ('BBB '/Stable) wholly state owned national oil company, are aligned using the sovereign's at the current level, the statement said.

SOCAR represents the state's interests from the strategically important gas and oil industry.

While SOCAR expects SOFAZ use a substantial portion of funds to the OGPC and other projects, there's no definitive agreement yet beyond 2013.

Moreover, Fitch estimates that SOFAZ's assets have peaked at about $34.1bn at end 2012 and expect these assets to decline through 2014 as SOFAZ contributions on the government budget ray ban outlet usa stay high.

Fitch notes that SOFAZ might not have sufficient funds for co purchase of all SOCAR's projects, resulting in SOCAR's taking on additional debt, beyond its current estimates.

Under its base rating case, Fitch expects SOCAR's oil production to say no yoy and its gas production to raise moderately in 2013 2015. The oil production decline follows the depletion of existing brownfields in Azerbaijan, SOCAR's only upstream region. Concurrently, the agency forecasts that the main production gains will likely be achieved in gas from Azerbaijan's production sharing agreements (PSAs), specifically the Stage 2 of Shah Deniz gas PSA, by which SOCAR has a 10 % stake and which expects to raise its production by 16 bcm of gas and 4m plenty of gas condensate from 2017, the statement said.

Fitch expects that SOCAR will expend nearly $5.8bn over 2013 2015 on capex.

"The company has little flexibility to postpone / phase out capex since several funds are earmarked because of its upstream to arrest brownfield production decline, to meet its obligations within the PSAs and to complete investment projects which can be already underway," the statement said. "These add the construction in the ray ban wayfarer 90% [url=http://www.cheaprbwayfarer.top]ray ban wayfarer 90% off off[/url] 10m ton STAR refinery in Turkey scheduled to get completed in 2017."

The business estimates that under its Brent price assumptions of $100 per bbl in 2013, $92/bbl in 2014, $85/bbl in 2015 and $75/bbl in 2016, SOCAR's funds from operations (FFO) net leverage will reach 3.2x in 2015, up from 0.8x next year.

An aggressive investment programme and/or acquisitions providing a significant and sustained deterioration of credit metrics will be negative for SOCAR ratings, the statement said.

SOCAR had 1.263m manat of funding at 31 December 2012, which was insufficient to hide its temporary debt maturities of 1.895m manat on that date. A big portion of SOCAR's cash including temporary deposits is held with the state owned International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA, 'BB'/Stable). Fitch notes that SOCAR's short-term maturities at end 12 amounted to about 40 percent of the gross debt. In March 2013, SOCAR placed a 4.75 % coupon $1bn bond due in 2023, to refinance a part of its existing debt and then for its capital investment program.

78 percent of SOCAR's debt at 31 December 2012 was denominated in USD like the USD500m bond due in 2017, leading to 60 percent of SOCAR's debt had floating rates.

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