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发表于 2016-10-11 23:17:37 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |正序浏览 |阅读模式
If there was ever a reason to rise up in support of an benevolent climate obsessed earth dictator, this could be it.
War and peace drought   Brazil's worst in many years   is threatening exports from the globe's largest coffee exporter and generating up wholesale prices worldwide. We've officially entered the realm of bloggers' worst case scenario.
At this moment, let's not get way too hasty. The world is not going to uses up coffee next week. Analysts still estimate an increasingly tight world-wide coffee surplus of a lot less than 1 percent of total manufacturing through the remainder of the year. However the Brazilian drought is causing a significant pressure on global products, and when coupled with burgeoning demand from customers from dan wanneer de omgeving verandert 78 increasingly affluent shoppers in Asia (and South america itself), er zu lieben  83 that means prices are floods and that surplus could get a shortage if the drought will continue to intensify. Arabica coffee futures are usually up more than 50 percent within the last two months in response.
The latest run on coffee is an demonstration of the kinds of follow on benefits to be expected as the local climate warms and rainfall habits become more erratic.
The ongoing not enough rainfall, coupled with record higher temperatures across the whole of southeast South America during the current Southern Hemisphere summer, is just the type of extreme weather event that has been becoming more common over modern times. In an era of controlled consensus that we humans are going to do this to ourselves, this kind of shouldn't come as a surprise.
The government financial aid 2011, Starbucks' head of sustainability, Jim Hanna, called increasingly severe weather linked to climate change your "potentially significant risk to our logistics." But Brazil's government   very similar to ours here in the United States   may have its head stuck from the sand on what to do concerning this.
NPR's Weekend Edition has a interesting look at the long term implications with Brazil's drought and dips a new toe into the local politics:
What one farmer can feel far into the Brazilian country side is pretty much exactly what scientists in Brazil's cities are saying, too.
Hilton Silveira Pinto is surely an agro climatologist who has worked on a number of scientific studies for EMBRAPA, Brazil's government agency regarding agriculture.
"The regions where most people plant coffee today, mainly the ones on lower elevations, will be getting hotter," he admits that. "And many of the coffee plantations of these areas will probably have to be discontinued."
Since coffee is actually grown on carefully cultivated trees, it takes years for the plantation to reach maturity. Because ideal coffee growing locations shift higher in top in a warming climate, present plantations will force desertion. NPR notes that some reports project up to 10 percent of Brazil's currently most productive coffee developing regions will be fallow in just the coming years.
The part of Brazil being reach hardest is in its remarkably populated southeastern corner, perfectly south of the Amazon bush. In Brazil, climate models have mixed results when projecting future rainfall patterns (wetter to the southeast, but drier on the Amazon and the northeast), but are unambiguous about the fact that temperatures consistently climb. This is a problem which is not going to go away.
And it's not just for coffee that's being damaged in una condizione che rivela il disagio con i mercati degli Stati Uniti the current drought. Brazil is additionally the world's largest exporter of glucose, oranges, soy and cow. Prices for those commodities also are surging in response to the famine in South America. Some cities Inches said Ayanbadejo 29 in Brazil have already initiated water rationing. This week, Reuters reported in which Brazil may have to lower it's 2014 economic growth estimate as a result of the ongoing drought.
Wanting ahead for the remainder of the Brazil summer rainy season plus into the autumn (March via May), the atmospheric probability seem to be stacked against any kind of significant rebound in rainfall any time soon. In fact, it seems greater dryness is the most likely situation.
  
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